Sustainability

Visual abstract for the sustainability chapter.

The Roots of Sustainability in Environmentalism

“Nachhaltigkeit” - sustainability in German - was likely the first use of the concept of preserving natural resources, conceived by a tax accountant Hannß Carl von Carlowitz in 1713 in his seminal book on forestry - Sylvicultura oeconomica -, referring to the goal of achieving prudent forest management practices in his native Saxony in Southeastern Germany, which at the time was under severe deforestation pressure from mining, ship-building and agricultural production (Hannß Carl von Carlowitz, 1713; Gottschlich & Friedrich, 2014). This particular field of sustainability study is now known as sustainable yield of natural capital. The principal of the natural resource being managed, such as in fishing and forestry, shouldn’t be over-harvested in order to maintain ecosystem services - a contemporary term from the theory of natural capital, referring to benefits humans receive from the stock of world’s natural resources (Peter Kareiva et al., 2011).

Defining sustainability perhaps more poetically, the American wildlife ecologist Aldo Leopold proposed the idea of land ethics in 1972 as “[a] thing is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise” in his landmark work A Sand County Almanac (Leopold, 1972). In a similar vein, the 1987 United Nations’ Brundtland Report titled “Our Common Future” defined sustainable development as “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (Anon, 1987). Given these varied ideas for over 300 years, I believe some percentage of people have been concerned with our planet’s natural environment and its preservation already for centuries. Yet, it is only in the last 100 and so years that human activities have begun to affect Earth’s systems on a previously unseen scale - termed Anthropocene -, necessitating a deeper understanding of human-nature interactions, such as in the case of climate change, which is rapidly changing the face of our living environments.

Measuring, Visualizing Earth’s Climate

Studies of Earth’s climate go back for over 200 years, starting with Alexander von Humboldt,the founder of climatology, who revolutionized cartography by inventing the first isothermal maps in 1816; these maps showed areas with similar temperature, variations in altitude and seasons in different colors (Honton, 2022) now available as 3D computer models(Anon, 2023c). Already in 1896, the Nobel Prize winner Svante Arrhenius first calculated how an increase in CO₂ levels could have a warming effect on our global climate (Anderson, Hawkins & Jones, 2016; Wulff, 2020). In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first scientist to demonstrate the warming of Earth’s land surface as well as linking the production of fossil fuels to increased CO₂e and changing climate (Hawkins & Jones, 2013). Early scientists pioneered climate modeling by calculating the first climate interactions which precede today’s complex computer-based Earth System Models (ESMs) that integrate the various Earth systems and cycles run on supercomputers (Anderson, Hawkins & Jones, 2016).

Humboldt's Naturgemälde, early data visualization of ecology, rain, temperature, elevation, etc. Photo Credit: Public Domain, WikiMedia Commons.

Environmental activists have been calling attention to global warming for decades, yet the world has been slow to act (McKibben, 1989). While the scientific case for human-induced climate change was building, it took 120 years after Arrhenius’ calculations, until the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016, that countries came to an agreement on non-binding targets on keeping CO₂ levels 1.5 °C below pre-industrial levels (defined as 1850–1900)(United Nations, 2016). Even though awareness of Earth’s warming climate was growing ever stronger, the CO₂ emissions kept rising too. The hockey-stick growth of CO₂ concentration since the industrial revolution is clear in the data from 1958 onward, following a steady annual increase, called the Keeling Curve (Keeling & Keeling, 2017). Written records of global temperature measurements are available starting from the 1880s, when temperatures began to be documented in ship logs (Brohan et al., 2012). Finally, although perhaps less accurately, temperature estimations from tree-trunks allow some comparisons with the climate as far back as 2000 years ago (Rubino et al., 2019).

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Photo Credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

The latest data from 2023 shows our current world population of 8 Billion people emitted 37.2 gigatonnes (i.e. billion metric tons) of CO₂e per year, the highest emissions recorded in history (Statista, 2023). In order to limit global warming to 1.5 °C as agreed by the world nations in Paris, removal of 5-20 gigatons of CO₂e per year would be needed according to reduction pathways calculated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Wade et al., 2023). Yet, most countries are missing the mark (Climate Analytics & NewClimate Institute, 2023; United Nations Environment Programme, 2023). The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reports 1.5 °C global warming has already been breached in 2024 temperatures (Anon, 2024b; Anon, 2024a). Given the current pace of climate change action, the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) are heading for 2.7 °C of warming by 2050 (CDP, 2022).

Earth’s physical systems are very sensitive to small changes in temperature, which was not understood until the 1970s(McKibben, 2006). A comprehensive review of evidence from paleoclimate records until current time, including ocean, atmosphere, and land surface of points towards substantial climate change if high levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue, termed by the authors as climate sensitivity (Sherwood et al., 2020). Global warming may lead to the slowing down and complete stop of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) which helps maintain climate stability (Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen, 2023).

Measuring CO₂e Emissions

Technology improves and measurements have become more accurate yet CO₂e emissions are not yet completely accounted for. (Crippa et al., 2020) reports the latest figures CO₂e from the EU’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). The EU Copernicus satellite system reveals new greenhouse emissions previously undetected (Daniel Värjö, 2022). Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) provides “[n]ear-real time updates of key global climate variables”(The Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024).

• [@matthewgoreEmissionsRegulationsShipping2022] reports the International Maritime Organization (IMO) targets cutting CO₂ equivalent emissions in shipping 50% by 2050 compared to 2008.

Emissions production is highly unequal, with “[t]he world’s top 1% of emitters produce over 1000 times more CO2 than the bottom 1%” (IEA, 2023)

CO₂e emissions by region (per year).

Comparing highest per capita CO_2e emissions (mostly from oil producers) vs regional average per capita CO₂ emissions vs total CO₂ emissions[@ivanovaQuantifyingPotentialClimate2020; @worldresourcesinstituteCO2EmissionsMetric2020; @europeancommission.jointresearchcentre.CO2EmissionsAll2022; @crippaFossilCO2GHG2020; @liuMonitoringGlobalCarbon2023].

Regional Average Per Capita Emissions (2020)	Highest Per Capita Emissions (2021)	Highest Total Emissions (2021)
North America 13.4 CO2e tonnes	Palau	China
Europe 7.5 CO2e tonnes	Qatar	United States
Global Average 4.1 CO2e tonnes	Kuwait	European Union
Africa and the Middle East 1.7 CO2e tonnes	Bahrain	India
	Trinidad and Tobago	Russia
	New Caledonia	Japan
	United Arab Emirates	Iran
	Gibraltar	Germany
	Falkland Islands	South Korea
	Oman	Indonesia
	Saudi Arabia	Saudi Arabia
	Brunei Darussalam	Canada
	Canada	Brazil
	Australia	Turkey
	United States	South Africa

Scoping CO_2e emissions into 4 main categories helps to organize calculating CO_2e emissions and corresponding reduction targets by looking at direct and indirect emissions separately. The U.S. National Public Utilities Council (NPUC) decarbonization report provides a useful categorization of emission scopes applicable to companies which helps organizing emission reduction schemes (National Public Utilities Council, 2022) based on the Greenhouse Gas Protocol defined in the 1990s (GHG Protocol, n.d.). For example, for consumers in Australian states and territories in 2018, 83% of the GHG emissions are Scope 3, meaning indirect emissions in the value chain (Goodwin et al., 2023). A newer concept is Scope 4 emissions also known as avoided emissions, proposed by the World Resources Institute (WRI) in 2013 (Plan A, n.d.).

Definition of Emission Scopes From [@nationalpublicutilitiescouncilAnnualUtilityDecarbonization2022].

Emission Scope	Emission Source
Scope 1	Direct emissions
Scope 2	Indirect electricity emissions
Scope 3	Value chain emissions
Scope 4	Avoided emissions

One’s scope 3 emissions are someone else’s scope 1 emissions.

• Mapping pollution sources in China Xie et al. (2021)

Countries have agreed up CO_2e Reduction Targets known as Country-Level Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

• UNFCCC. Secretariat (2022) The State of Nationally Determined Contributions

While most countries have not reached their Nationally Determined Contributions, the Climate Action Tracker data portal allows to compare countries (Climate Analytics & NewClimate Institute, 2023). (Fransen et al., 2022) notes that the majority of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are dependent on financial assistance from the international community.

Climate Action Tracker’s country comparison of the 10 top polluters’ climate action.

Country or Region	NDC target
China	Highly insufficient
Indonesia	Highly insufficient
Russia	Critically insufficient
EU	Insufficient
USA	Insufficient
United Arab Emirates	Highly insufficient
Japan	Insufficient
South Korea	Highly insufficient
Iran	Critically insufficient
Saudi Arabia	Highly insufficient

Fossil fuels are what powers humanity as well as the largest source of CO₂ emissions. IEA (2022) reports “Global CO₂ emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes rebounded in 2021 to reach their highest ever annual level. A 6% increase from 2020 pushed emissions to 36.3 gigatonnes”. As on June 2023, fossil fuel based energy makes up 82% of energy and is still growing Institute (2023). The 425 largest fossil fuel projects represent a total of over 1 gigatons in CO₂ emissions, 40% of which were new projects Kühne et al. (2022). Tilsted et al. (2023) expects the fossil fuel industry to continue grow even faster. In July 2023, the U.K. granted hundreds of new oil and gas of project licenses in the North Sea (Anon, 2023d).

Markets for Ecosystem Assets: Pricing, Tracing and Trading

Markets for ecosystems assets are centered around carbon credits, a type of nature-backed financial derivative dependent on science-based methodologies for measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), which are managed and regularly updated by certification organizations such as Gold Standard, Verra, and others.

Criteria for carbon credit projects.

Criteria	Description
Baseline	Ecosystem carbon sequestration rate without the intervention (project)
Additionality	New carbon capture or prevention of emissions
Permanence	Carbon storage time (should be long-term)
Leakage	Risk of shift to causing emissions (for example because of deforestation)

Verra updated their Agricultural Land Management methodology for Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) last year (Verra, 2023). Gold Standard recently release a methodology for Mangrove-based carbon credits [ADD CITATION].

CO_2e assigning a monetary value to carbon emissions.

Trading CO_2e emissions can be divided into 2 categories - Compliance Carbon Markets (CCM) and Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCM).

The legislative baseline for Compliance Carbon Markets is so low, people want to retire more CO_2e, which they can do through Voluntary Carbon Markets.

For the individual person, there’s no direct access to CO₂ markets. However, brokers do buy large amounts of carbon credits to resell in smaller quantities to retail investors.

“Carbon pricing is not there to punish people,” says Lion Hirth Lion Hirth (n.d.). “It’s there to remind us, when we take travel, heating, consumption decisions that the true cost of fossil fuels comprises not only mining and processing, but also the damage done by the CO₂ they release.”

Long term cost of insufficient climate action is more than short-term gains from delaying efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

• The total size of carbon markets reached 949 billion USD in 2023, including Chinese, European, and North American CO₂ trading (LSEG & Susanna Twidale, 02/12/2024, 02:37 PM).

• The price of CO_2e differs across markets. (Stern, 2022) argues carbon-neutral economy needs higher CO_2e prices and believes (Rennert et al., 2022) CO_2e price per ton should be 3,6x higher that it is currently. Contrary, (Ritz, 2022) argues optimal CO₂ prices could be highly asymmetric, low in some countries and high (above the social cost of CO_2e) in countries where production is very polluting.

• iGenius (2020)

The fossil energy production that’s a large part of global CO2 emissions has caused several high-profile pollution events. Large ones that got international news coverage include Exxon Valdez and Deepwater Horizon.

• Lenton et al. (2023) quantifying human cost of global warming.

CO_2e credits has given rise to Carbon Accounting industry.

• Watershed is a large carbon accounting company.

• The legislation has created an industry of CO₂ accounting with many companies like Greenly, Sustaxo, etc.

• Quatrini (2021) sustainability assessments are complex and may give flawed results.

• Nonetheles, CO₂ emission reduction has the added positive effect of boosting corporate morale (Cao, Li & Hasan, 2023).

Compliance Carbon Markets

meet legal emission reduction targets

Cap & Trade

The share of CO₂ emissions among people around the world is highly unequal across the world (referred to as Carbon Inequality). (Chancel, 2022) reports “one-tenth of the global population is responsible for nearly half of all emissions, half of the population emits less than 12%”.

• One example is the ICT sector.

• Bajarin (n.d.) Over 300 million PCs sold in 2022

  • Anon (2021) Estonian company “sustainable lifecycle management of IT equipment”
  • Ärileht (23.09.2022, 12:53) Recycle your phone, FoxWay and Circular economy for PCs.
  • Zhou et al. (2022) ICT is an example of inequality, while emerging economies bear 82% of the emissions, developed countries gain 58% of value.

Emissions Trading Schemes

From Carbon Offsets to Carbon Credits

• “A carbon credit represents one tonne of carbon dioxide that has been prevented from entering or has been removed from the atmosphere” (Anna Watson, 2023, 2022).

Retiring CO₂ allowances

• Facilitating citizens’ access to CO₂ emissions trading may be an efficient method to organize large-scale CO₂ retiring (Rousse, 2008).

As of 2024 there’s no single global CO₂ trading market but rather several local markets as described in the table below.

CO₂ credit trading markets around the world from @InternationalCarbonMarket.

CO2 Market	Launch Date	Comments
EU	2005	EU: @araujoEuropeanUnionMembership2020
South Korea	2015
China	2021	China’s national emissions trading scheme (ETS) started in 2021 priced at 48 yuan per tonne of CO2, averaged at 58 yuan in 2022 [@liuIndepthWillChina2021; @ivyyinCommodities2023China2023].
U.S.	2013	No country-wide market; local CO2 markets in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont
New Zealand	2008	New Zealand @rontardPoliticalConstructionCarbon2022 (need access, important ncku doesn’t subscribe)
Canada	2013

Most of the world is not part of a CO₂ market.

• (Sipthorpe et al., 2022) compares traditional and blockchain-based solutions to carbon trading.

• “Blockchain solutions for carbon markets are nearing maturity” and offer many improvements. enhancing transparency, trust, and efficiency.

• (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2021) report. “The Emissions Gap Report (EGR) 2021: The Heat Is On shows that new national climate pledges combined with other mitigation measures put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. That is well above the goals of the Paris climate agreement and would lead to catastrophic changes in the Earth’s climate. To keep global warming below 1.5°C this century, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to halve annual greenhouse gas emissions in the next eight years.

• (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2021) report “If implemented effectively, net-zero emissions pledges could limit warming to 2.2°C, closer to the well-below 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. However, many national climate plans delay action until after 2030. The reduction of methane emissions from the fossil fuel, waste and agriculture sectors could help close the emissions gap and reduce warming in the short term, the report finds. Carbon markets could also help slash emissions. But that would only happen if rules are clearly defined and target actual reductions in emissions, while being supported by arrangements to track progress and provide transparency.”

• (United Nations Environment Programme, 2022) 2022 Emissions Gap report.

Compliance market CO₂ prices on August 12, 2023; data from [@emberCarbonPriceTracker2023; @tradingeconomicsEUCarbonPermits2023; @carboncreditsLiveCarbonPrices2023].

Compliance Markets	Price (Tonne of CO2)
EU	83 EUR
UK	40 Pounds
US (California)	29 USD
Australia	32 USD
New Zealand	50 USD
South Korea	5.84 USD
China	8.29 USD

• tree bark absorbs methane, (Gauci et al., 2024).

Voluntary Carbon Markets

Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) and the Gold Standard, Climate Action Reserve (CAR)‍, American Carbon Registry (ACR)

“BeZero Carbon is a ratings agency for the Voluntary Carbon Market.”

https://bezerocarbonmarkets.com/

Voluntary Carbon Markets are …

Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCM) lack standardization and transparency (Ela Khodai, 2023).

Carbon Credits are useful for private companies who wish to claim carbon neutrality, climate positivity, or other related claim, which might be viewed in good light by their clients or allow the companies to adhere to certain legislative requirements.

There are many companies which facilitate buy carbon credits as well as a few organizations focused on carbon credit verification.

• In Estonia, startups Arbonic and Single.Earth are trialing this approach in several forests.
• For example Flickr invested 3000 USD in carbon credits and got a carbon-neutral rating (?!).
• Carbon Credit Retirement?
• Methodologies: Anon (2022b)
• KlimaDAO (2023) call for an open standard

Voluntary market CO₂ prices on August 12, 2023; data from [@carboncreditsLiveCarbonPrices2023].

Voluntary Markets	Price (Tonne of CO2)
Aviation Industry Offset	$0.93
Nature Based Offset	$1.80
Tech Based Offset	$0.77

Overconsumption > Earth’s Boundaries

Excessive consumer lifestyle - overconsumption - is one of the main drivers of climate change and environmental destruction, with “2/3 of global GHG emissions are directly and indirectly linked to household consumption, with a global average of about 6 tonnes CO₂ equivalent per capita” , according to (Renee Cho, 2020; Ivanova et al., 2020). An older study put the number as high as 60% percent (Ivanova et al., 2016) while (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Material Economics, 2019)’s models 45% show of CO₂ equivalent emissions come from our shopping; produced by companies to make the products we consume.

With the trend of urbanization, it’s not surprising (people living in) cities are responsible for 80% of the emissions (Rosales Carreón & Worrell, 2018). (Moberg et al., 2019) reports daily human activities emission contribution on average in four European countries (France, Germany, Norway and Sweden).

Daily human activities emission contribution on average in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden from [@mobergMobilityFoodHousing2019].

Emission Share	Category
21%	Housing
30%	Food
34%	Mobility
15%	Other

Earth’s growing population reached 8 Billion people In November 2022 and population projections by predict 8.5B people by 2030 and 9.7B by 2050 (The Economic Times, 2022; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2022). Indeed, making anything consumes natural resources, which are limited on planet Earth. (Hassoun et al., 2023) forecasts increase of global food demand by 62% driven by the impact of climate change. Yet, while population growth puts higher pressure on Earth’s resources, some researchers propose the effect is higher from wasteful lifestyles than the raw number of people (Cardinale et al., 2012). Meanwhile others, such as (Cafaro, Hansson & Götmark, 2022), believe [o]verpopulation is a major cause of biodiversity loss and smaller human populations are necessary to preserve what is left.”

While the numbers on overconsumption are clear, the debate on overconsumption is so polarized, it’s difficult to have a meaningful discussion of the topic (Ianole & Cornescu, 2013). Environmental risks from human activities are known as Anthropogenic Threat Complexes (ATCs) (Bowler et al., 2020). As long as humanity is a mono-planetary species, we have to come to terms with the limitations of our home, Earth.

Plastic Pollution

Overconsumption is also one of the root causes of plastic pollution. (Ford et al., 2022) and (Lavers, Bond & Rolsky, 2022) find strong links between climate change and marine plastic pollution “along with other stressors that threaten the resilience of species and habitats sensitive to both climate change and plastic pollution”.

Plastic pollution is pervasive around the Earth and is fundamentally linked to climate change, while microplastics are increasingly a real concern (Tiernan et al., 2022; Lavers, Bond & Rolsky, 2022). Several international studies report recent findings of microplastics everywhere in human bodies: the brain, lungs, digestive tissues, bone marrow, penis, testis, seminal fluid (semen), and placenta - causing serious health and reproductive concerns (Main, 2024; Guo et al., 2024; Hu et al., 2024; Codrington et al., 2024; Li et al., 2024; Montano et al., 2023; Garcia et al., 2024; Zhu et al., 2024)

• Jackson (2017) limits to growth update
• (Keeble, 1988) reported in April 1987 that ‘residents in high-income countries lead lifestyles incompatible with planetary boundaries’.
• Overconsumption and underinvestment.

tipping points - Armstrong McKay et al. (2022) discusses tipping points. - TED (2024)

In addition to the enormity of over-reaching CO₂ emissions, humanity is facing other massive environmental problems. The Stockholm Resilience Centre reports we have already breached 4 out of our 9 “planetary boundaries”: in addition to climate change, biodiversity loss (Extinctions per Million Species per Year aka E/MSY), land-system change (deforestation, land degradation, etc), and biogeochemical flows (cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, etc); on a positive side, the challenges of fresh water use, ocean acidification and stratospheric ozone depletion are still within planetary limits (Persson et al., 2022).

• Ceballos, Ehrlich & Dirzo (2017) mass extinctions
• IUCN Red List: 45,300 species (28% of all assessed) under threat of extinction IUCN (2024)

Atmospheric aerosol loading and the biodiversity intactness index (BII) were quantified recently (ADD CITATION)

My home country Estonia at the time was considered low-income, a small nation in poverty behind the Iron Curtain occupation of the Soviet Union, we now in 2024, have also reached high-income status.

• De Balie (2018)

• Houdini (2018)

• Haeggman, Moberg & Sandin (2018)

• Richardson et al. (2023)

Planetary Boundaries 2023 update. Photo Credit: Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, based on analysis in Richardson et al 2023.

In 1948, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) was founded, which in

LULUCF “Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry” can both be a source of greenhouse gas emissions - or a carbon sink (removing CO2 from the atmosphere).

Earth System Law, Planetary Health, and Social Cost of CO₂

Planetary Health, Earth System Law, and Social Cost of Carbon are 3 approaches to address the complex interdependence of humans with our physical environment.

Scientists in cross-disciplinary teams have been working on integrating Earth systems and human society into cohesive frameworks.

Evolving Measurements from Planetary Boundaries to Planetary Health

• Planetary health (Planetary Health Alliance, 2024a, 2024b)

• Wardani et al. (2023) “long-term human well-being is dependent on the well-being of the planet, including both biotic and abiotic systems. It recognizes interlinkages across environmental sustainability, public health, and socioeconomic development.”

Earth System Law is a framework for addressing interconnected environmental challenges (Du Toit & Kotzé, 2022).

Social Cost of Carbon attempts to measures the compound impact of CO_2e emissions on society. Sustainability is filled with complexities. CO_2e emissions are complicated by biodiversity loss, child labor, slavery, poverty, chemical pollution, etc. - many issues become intertwined (TEDx Talks, 2020). One attempt to measure these complexities, is the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) which is defined as “additional damage caused by an extra unit of emissions” (Kornek et al., 2021; Zhen, Tian & Ye, 2018). For example the cost of damages caused by “one extra ton of carbon dioxide emissions” (Stanford University, 2021). SCC variations exist between countries (Tol, 2019) and regions (Wang, Ma & Wang, 2022).

• (Lin et al., 2022) says, apart from CO₂, reduction of other atmospheric pollutants, such as non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) is required for climate stability.

• (Wang & Teng, 2022): Quantifying climate damage proposes scenarios of climate damage.

Ecosystem Services: Quantifying Human Benefits from Nature

Ecosystem services measure the benefits humans receive from the biosphere. Put most simply, ecosystem services enable human life on Earth. While it can be assumed much of the flora and fauna are crucial for Earth’s systems, science is still in the process of understanding and quantifying its contributions. The history of the valuation of nature’s services goes back to the 18th century when David Ricardo and Jean Baptiste Say discussed nature’s work, however both considered it should be free (Gómez-Baggethun et al., 2010). In 1997 (Anon, 1997) proposed the idea of ecosystem services and (Costanza et al., 1997) attempted to assess the amount of ecosystem services provided. (Le Provost et al., 2022)’s study shows biodiversity as one key factor to maintain delivery of ecosystem services. (Noriega et al., 2018) attempts to quantify the ecosystem services (ES) provided by insects.

The most complex computer models which attempt to capture ever more interactions happening in the physical realm are called digital twins. The EU is developing a digital twin of Earth to help sustainability prediction and planning, integrating Earth’s various systems such as climate, hydrology, ecology, etc, into a single model Anon (2023a). We can use all the data being recorded to provide a digital twin of the planet, nature, ecosystems and human actions to help us change our behavior and optimize for planetary wellbeing.

• Jackson (1996) preventive environmental management

Biosphere

Earth’s biosphere is made up of 846 terrestrial ecoregions, which are distributed across 14 major biomes and 8 biogeographical realms (Dinerstein et al., 2017).

Ecological Indicators

Sustainability can be measured using a variety of ecological indicators.

Ecological indicators for Earth - I would like to coin the word “ecomarkers” - are like biomarkers in human health.

Technological advances help scientist better understand nature. Cutting edge research uses AI-based voice recognition for listening to nature, assessing biodiversity based on species’ sounds in the forest. Millions of detections of different species with machine learning passive acoustic AI models, can also assess species’ response to climate change (AI for Good, 2023; Guerrero et al., 2023).

Environmental DNA (eDNA) helps scientists measure species abundance without direct observation through detection of DNA on genetic materials such as skin cells (Peter Andrey Smitharchive page, 2024). Cellular DNA can be isolated from various sediment types (Ogram, Sayler & Barkay, 1987). Beyond scientific applications, eDNa is being used to generate biodiversity credits by environmental asset rating companies such as BeZero (Ojoatre & Atkinson, 2023).

AI is being used to map icebergs and measure the change in size (European Space Agency, 2023).

Biodiversity

Why Protect Biodiversity?

(May, 2011) argues biodiversity loss is a concern for 3 points of views:

From [@mayWhyShouldWe2011].

View
Narrowly Utilitarian	Biodiversity is a resource of genetic novelties for the biotech industry.
Broadly Utilitarian	Humans depend upon biodiverse ecosystems.
Ethical	Humans have a responsibility to future generations to pass down a rich natural world.

• Meanwhile the destruction pressure on ecosystems is rapidly increasing (ADD CITATION A B C).

• Chen et al. (2023) Ecosystem vulnerability (need access)

• Zhang et al. (2023) Integrating ecosystem services conservation into urban planning (need access)

• Li et al. (2023) tourism is a large industrial sector which relies on ecosystem services. In Taiwan, (Lee, Jan & Liu, 2021) developed a framework of indicators to assess sustainable tourism.

Measuring Environmental Degradation

(Almond, R.E.A. et al., 2022) reported, the number of species killed, mass destruction of nature. “69% decline in the relative abundance of monitored wildlife populations around the world between 1970 and 2018. Latin America shows the greatest regional decline in average population abundance (94%), while freshwater species populations have seen the greatest overall global decline (83%).”

Biodiversity loss is linked to overconsumption, weak legislation and lack of oversight. (Crenna, Sinkko & Sala, 2019) recounts European Union consumers’ negative impact on biodiversity in countries where it imports food. WWF (2022) case study highlights how 4 biodiverse regions Cerrado in Brazil, Chaco in Argentina, Sumatra in Indonesia, and the Cuvette Centrale in Democratic Republic of Congo are experiencing rapid destruction due to consumer demand in the European Union. While the European Union (EU) has recently become a leader in sustainability legislation, biodiversity protection measures among private companies is very low Marco-Fondevila & Álvarez-Etxeberría (2023).

Meanwhile, there is some progress in biodiversity conservation as “[*b]iodiversity awareness is now at 72% or higher in all countries sampled, compared to only 29% or higher across countries sampled in 2009”* (UEBT, 2022)

Convention on Biodiversity

Similarly to climate protection, the UN has taken a leadership role in biodiversity protection. Unit (2023): The history of the United Nations Convention on Biodiversity goes back to 1988, when the working group was founded. UNEP (Tue, 12/20/2022 - 07:44): The Convention on Biodiversity 2022 (COP15) adopted the first global biodiversity framework to accompany climate goals.

Protecting biodiversity

Biodiversity loss data from [@bradshawUnderestimatingChallengesAvoiding2021].

What Happened?	How Much?
Vertebrate species population average decline	68% over the last 50 years
Land surface altered by humans	70% of Earth
Vertebrate species extinct	700 in 500 years
Plant species extinct	600 in 500 years
Species under threat of extinction	1 million

Oceans

Blue carbon.

Marine Heatwaves

• Gelles & Andreoni (2023) describe how marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity. Ocean warming leads to coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in Queensland, east coast of Australia (Pfeiffer, 2024).
• Espinosa & Bazairi (2023) marine ecosystem services (need access, ncku doesn’t sub)
• Howard et al. (2017) argues Oceans play crucial role in carbon capture.

Forest

Forests are a crucial part of Earth’s carbon cycle and the main natural CO₂ capture system; due to deforestation, Europe rapidly losing its forest carbon sink (Frédéric Simon, 2022). Around 27% of Earth’s land area is still covered by forests yet deforestation is widespread all around the world; highest rates of deforestation happened in the tropical rainforests of South America and Africa, mainly caused by agricultural cropland expansion (50% of all deforestation) and grazing land for farm animals to produce meat (38,5%), totaling close to 90% of global deforestation (Anon, 2022a). The global forest cover change is visible on Google’s Earth Engine (Hansen et al., 2013).

Around the world, there are many initiatives to increase forest cover, for example the 1 billion tree project (Greenfield & @pgreenfielduk, 2021; Anon, 2020; Bastin et al., 2019). However, it’s important to not planting trees (afforestation) is not the full solution, as afforestation is different from reforestation, which takes into account biodiversity. Also, while using remote-sensing and machine-learning to assess reforestation potential (see Klosterman et al., 2022), it doesn’t take into account local political realities.

• Burning of biomass undermines carbon capture.
• Bousfield et al. (2022) reports there’s evidence paying landowners for the ecosystem services their forests provide may reduce deforestation.
• nature-based solutions.

Pollution

In, Taiwan this is the ranking of pollution reports by citizens (Ministry of Digital Affairs, 2024):

<Figure size 1152x768 with 0 Axes>

Health and sustainability are inextricably linked. “Human health is central to all sustainability efforts.”, “All of these (food, housing, power, and health care), and the stress that the lack of them generate, play a huge role in our health” (Sarah Ludwig Rausch & Neha Pathak, 2021).

Design Implications Start with the most polluted regigons as priority?

Air Pollution

Clean air is a proposed as a human right (Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb & Caroline Lucas, 2023) yet air pollution is widespread around the planet, with 99% of Earth’s human population being affected by bad air quality that does not meet WHO air quality guidelines, leading to health problems linked to 6.7 million premature deaths every year (World Health Organization, 2022).

Air pollution is linked to cancer incidence. In Taiwan, South Korea, and England, groundbreaking research by (Lim et al., 2022) analyzed over 400000 individuals establishes exposure to 2.5μm PM (PM2.5) air pollution as a cause for lung cancer. In (Hannah Devlin, 2022), professor Tony Mok, of the Chinese University of Hong Kong: “We have known about the link between pollution and lung cancer for a long time, and we now have a possible explanation for it. As consumption of fossil fuels goes hand in hand with pollution and carbon emissions, we have a strong mandate for tackling these issues – for both environmental and health reasons.”

The main way to combat air pollution is through policy interventions. (MARIA LUÍS FERNANDES, 2023) the EU has legislation in progress to curb industrial emissions. If legislation is in place, causing bad air quality can become bad for business. In China, (Gu et al., 2023) links air pollution to credit interest rates for business loans; companies with low environmental awareness and a history of environmental penalties pay 12 percent higher interest rates. In France, (Bouscasse et al., 2022) finds strong health and economic benefits across the board from air pollution reduction.

Water Pollution

Globally, 4.4 billion people only have access to water that’s not safe for drinking (Soliman, 2024).

• Bioswales help catch storm debris and reduce water pollution.

• Clean water and water pollution

• Koch (2022) (Need access! NYC times)

• Paris cleans Seine river for Paris Olympics

Soil Pollution

• “Wild and ruderal plants as bioindicators of global urban pollution by air, water and soil in Riyadh and Abha, Saudi Arabia” (Picó et al., 2023) uses wild and ruderal plants to detect pollution by air, water and soil.
• Bioindicators of anthropogenic pollution, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and other industrial chemicals.
• Both Abha and Riyadh showed notable levels of pollutants while Riyadh with more industry showed higher levels.

Ready for Disaster

The Word Economic Forums Global Risks Report 2024 paints a bleak picture of the future with expectations of increased turbulence across the board based on a survey of over 1400 topic experts (World Economic Forum, n.d.).

Weather

Global warming increases the risk of disasters and extreme weather events.

(Anon, 2023b) The US Global Change Research Program presented a comprehensive report to the US Congress, which links disaster-risk directly to global warming; for examples increased wildfires damage property, endanger life and reduces air quality, which in effect increases health challenges. As extreme temperatures are increasingly commonplace, with observed changes in heatwaves, there’s increased risk of wildfires (Volkova, Roxburgh & Weston, 2021; Perkins-Kirkpatrick & Green, 2023), while flood risk mapping might lower property prices in at risk areas (Sherren, 2024). Summers of 2022 and 2023 were the hottest on record so far, with extreme heat waves recorded in places around the world (Venturelli et al., 2023; Serrano-Notivoli et al., 2023; Douglas, 2023; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce, 2023; NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2023; Falconer, 2023).

The part of Earth where the human climate niche is becoming smaller (McKibben, 2023). As temperatures rise, certain cities may become uninhabitable for humans (CBC Radio, 2021). The summer of 2023 saw extensive wildfires in Spain, Canada, and elsewhere; rapidly moving fires destroyed the whole city of Lāhainā in Hawaii [ADD CITATION]. In California, (Jerrett, Jina & Marlier, 2022) says, “[w]ildfires are the second most important source of emissions in 2020” and “negate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from other sectors.” Some parts of South America have seen summer heat in the winter, with heatwaves with temperatures as high as 38 degrees (Livingston, 2023).

In Taiwan disaster risk and hazard mapping is well-developed, with early warning systems, and comprehensive response preparedness - and painful experiences - instrumental to saving lives (Tsai et al., 2021). Intensifying storms forming near coastlines, can be expected with “[c]hanges to tropical cyclone trajectories in Southeast Asia under a warming climate” (Garner et al., 2024). The situation on the Pacific and Atlantic oceans is not dissimilar, with “[o]bserved increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates” (Garner, 2023).

In the Phillipines, with increasing extreme weather events, “businesses are more likely to emerge in areas where infrastructure is resilient to climate hazards” (Cheng & Han, 2022).

Climate-related disasters can spur action as extreme weather becomes visible to everyone. After large floods in South Korea in July 2023 with many victims, president Joon promised to begin taking global warming seriously and steer the country towards climate action (Web, 2023; AFP, 2023; Al Jazeera, 2023). South Korea has a partnership with the European Union (European Commission, 2023).

• Chernobyl and Fukushima
• the Great Pacific Garbage Patch
• Disputes in Eerola (2022).

Financialization of Nature vs Nature is Sacred: Scaling Up Sustainable Action:

There are 2 main approaches to protecting nature:

Economics of Nature Commodification	Economics of the Sacred
Measure and assign monetary value to nature.	Nature is Sacred - such as are religious holy places - and can’t be touched [@eisensteinSacredEconomicsMoney2011; @eisensteinClimateNewStory2018]

• (Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery, 2023) asks should we put a price on nature?
• Is it time to leave utilitarian environmentalism behind? Muradian & Gómez-Baggethun (2021)

From [@MonetaryValuationNature2023].

9 Steps

Identify ecosystem functions

Quantify ecosystem functions

Identify ecosystem services

Quantify ecosystem services

Quantify financial value of ecosystem services

Assign property rights

Create ecosystem service markets

Commodify nature

Individual Action

Sometimes individual environmental (climate) action does matter and can come at great personal cost, even loss of life. EJAtlas tracks environmental justice cases around the world, where human stakes are very high Scheidel et al. (2020).

However, for most of us individual climate action is ineffective. The effect of individual climate action such as choosing a more sustainable product is so limited to be next to meaningless. For individual consumer choices to make a difference, they need to be aggregated into a movement, collective action with scale, influence, and visibility.

There is no single solution to the environmental crisis. Given the enormity of environmental degradation, many different approaches are needed. This chapter documents some of the ongoing work which a sustainability companion could assist college students get involved with.

Restoration

Regenerative Action

• (Han & Chen, 2022) identifies nature-based solutions “land re-naturalization (such as afforestation and wetland restoration)”

From @hanEmbeddingNaturebasedSolutions2022

Non-Exhaustive list of
Afforestation
Wetland restoration

Ecology, Agroforestry & Permaculture

Some argue sustainability is not enough and we should work on regeneration of natural habitats.

The UN announced 2021-2030 the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (Fischer et al., 2021).

• Agroecology Baltic Sea Action Group (2023)

Agroforestry plays an active role in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Ruba & Talucder, 2023);

• Food forests for regenerative food systems.
• Svalbard Seed Vault
• Irwin et al. (2023)
• Yadav et al. (2023)
• Low, Dalhaus & Meuwissen (2023)
• Ollinaho & Kröger (2023) “bioeconomy is not inherently sustainable and may pose considerable risks to biodiversity.”
• De Queiroz-Stein & Siegel (2023)
• Gamage et al. (2023) “Organic food and drink sales in 2019 totaled more than 106 billion euros worldwide.”

Geopolitical situations can affect technology adoption; after Russia’s war in Ukraine, Europe needed to quickly reduce consuming cheap Russan fossil fuel energy (in the form of gas) (Bonasia, 2024). In 2024, for first time in Europe, renewables in the form of wind and solar energy surged past production of fossil fuels (Graham & Fulghum, 2024; Beer, 2024)

EU energy mix in 2024

Wind and solar energy overtook fossil energy in Europe.

Globally, renewables also overtook fossil fuels (IEA, 2024).

Meanwhile reduction in coal-power was also possible. Coal is a large CO2 emitter.

“Climatech”, Renewable Energy and Transforming Energy Production

Large technology conglomerates and newly founded startups working in climate solutions space (often referred to as climatech by the media) have proposed a range of approaches to CO₂ reduction in Earth’s atmosphere. These technologies include several types of carbon capture, directly from the air (direct air capture or DAC), from the source of pollution, such as using high–performance filters on factory chimneys, as well as nature-based solutions such as large scale tree planting using drones.

Each technology has their own pros and cons. (Vitillo et al., 2022) illustrates how direct air capture of CO₂ is difficult because of low concentration and CO₂ capture at the source of the emissions is more feasible.

• (Gaure & Golombek, 2022) simulate a CO₂ free electricity generation system in the European Union where “98% of total electricity production is generated by wind power and solar; the remainder is covered by a backup technology.”. The authors stipulate it’s possible to power the EU without producing CO₂ emissions.

• Important: “creating sustainability trust in companies in realtime”

Complexity: Towards Probabilistic Risk-Based Assessment

Sustainability is a complex web of interconnections.

• thread of commodification of nature. category mistake. impossible to bring back already destroyed biodiversity which took millennia to develop. humans create hugely complex systems instead of simply conserving nature.

• The concept of how a public resource is over-used until breaking down as each user only bears a fraction of the cost - know as tragedy of the commons -was described by the ecologist Garrett Hardin in 1968 (Hardin, 1968; Meisinger, 2022; Lopez, Pastén & Gutiérrez Cubillos, 2022; Murase & Baek, 2018).

Design Implications

Implications

Category	Implication
Transparency	In unison, the reviewed technologies and practices move us closer to enabling realtime ESG: up-do-date transparent information about how our product are produced.
Speed	Realtime ESG is a building block to enable consumers and investors make more accurate, real-world purchase decisions.
Actionability	Simplify action
Pollution	People live in the polluted areas are so used to it. What app to wake them up? “You live in a highly polluted area. Here’s the TOP 10 companies causing pollution. Here’s what you can do.”
Health Tracking	Blood testing and biomarkers allow people to track their health. I’m introducing the concept of ‘eco-markers’ to follow the sustainability of human activities.
Circular Economy	AI can help us make sense of the vast amounts of sustainability data generated daily.
EPR	ERP and CDP data should be part of Green Filter.
Eco-Design	How to find eco-designed products?
CE and EPC	Encouraging Sustainable Design
Politics Matter
	Call for GOP contributors’ transparency
	“triple turn”
	Lack of transparency
	Sustainability is part of product quality. If a product is hurting the environment, it’s a low quality product.

Feature Ideas

Category	Idas

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